Theory, Evolution, and Games Group

If we want to talk philosophy then it is necessary to mention Aristotle. Or is it just a likely beginning? For Aristotle, there were three types of events: certain, probable, and unknowable. Unfortunately for science, Aristotle considered the results of games of chance to be unknowable, and probability theory started — 18 centuries later — with the analysis of games of chance. This doomed much of science to an awkward fetishisation of probability, an undue love of certainty, and unreasonable quantification of the unknowable. A state of affairs that stems from our fear of admitting when we are ignorant, a strange condition given that many scientists would agree with Feynman’s assessment that one of the main features of science is acknowledging our ignorance:

Unfortunately, we throw away our ability to admit ignorance when we assign probabilities to everything. Especially in settings where there is no reason to postulate an underlying…

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