CB Capital Research, Inc.

In our June 13, 2013 newsletter (please email us for a copy), we asserted that–after six years of U.S. household deleveraging–the confluence of many forces, such as growing U.S. energy independence, rising housing prices, and an improving private sector labor market, suggests U.S. consumer spending growth is still early in the cycle.

According to the BLS, the number of U.S. employed aged 16+ (seasonally adjusted) peaked at 146.6 million in November 2007. This fell to just 138.0 million at the December 2009 trough, i.e. the U.S. lost 8.6 million jobs during the recession. As of August 2013, the number of U.S. employed aged 16+ has recovered to 144.2 million. Since the beginning of 2013, the U.S. had added nearly 900,000 jobs, after adding 2.4 million jobs in 2012. Perhaps more important, the U.S. private sector has been driving most of this job growth. Assuming the private sector (which has…

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